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Friday, July 21, 2006

China Essence

As requested by sunningdale & victor. On the chart, it looks like a stock that everything is going its way. Closing at .625 today, it has broken out of the downward resistance line & is nestling above the support at .615. Observe the RSI chart of China Essence, i have indicated blue arrows which shows its RSI breaking up from the downward resistance line and rising above the 30% downtrend support mark or what is commonly refered to as the oversold mark. With such a gd setup, together with higher than normal volume traded today, it looks set to test the .665 resistance very soon, if it can hold itself within the uptrend channel.
I was told that a zaobao chartist has forecasted via the Elliot wave theory that our STi is on the last wave that may top out at 2420 level and promptly drop to below 2278, the last recent bottom. Yes, i have the same reaction as u do, shocked. Not by the magnitude of the fall forecasted, but by the pin-point accurate numbers and direction that was predicted.
I have to stressed once again that in trading or in life, no one absolutely knows for sure what will happen the next minute, not to mention the prediction which is definitely talking abt a period of at least 1 week. The movement in the stock market is the manifestation of the collective thinking of all the people participating within. As a person who analyse with TA, i feel that we must not fall into the trap of predicting what will happen. Instead, we should analyse what we should do when certain conditions happens, for eg, what do we do when a stock's price has broken through a resistance level, or what will be the support level when it didnt break and is now retracing back. This will be a more responsible way of using Technical Analysis and the way it is meant to be.

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