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Thursday, January 18, 2007

Swimming on Our Own



Ausgroup ~ stored energy supp .535 , breakout .575





Banjoo ~ Superman, breakout lvl .14






HL Asia ~ bullish engulf with volume, supp 1.93 , res 2.06






Hongguo ~ ascending star, breakout lvl .965 (vested)






SPH ~ consolidation, supp 4.40 , res 4.56 (vested)






Wilmar ~ flag, supp 2.50 , res 3.00




Our own personal ocean of logic started approximately 2,500 years ago, when a philosophical war was going on between two opposite camps represented on one side by Aristotle and on the other by Heraclitus. Aristotle basically seduced the world by saying that if you don't know something, you should go to people who know more than you do, and ask them. That advice sounds quite reasonable, and it has been accepted by much of the earth's population for two and a half millennia. Acceptance does not necessarily make it true. Remember that the civilized world functioned adequately for hundreds of years while believing that the world was flat. Businesses and mapmakers flourished. But then Galileo and a handful of others looked through a telescope and saw round planets in orbits in the heavens.

They knew that the flat-earth paradigm was wrong, but it took close to 200 years and much suffering on their part before the reality of a round earth was accepted. The Aristotelian/Heraclitian dispute was much more insidious than the conflict involved in understanding the heavens. Because Aristotle won this intellectual war, your life is as it is today. Had Heraclitus won back then, we would have a completely different civilization. Aristotle influences almost every thought you have and each of your analyses of the markets. Why do you read the Wall Street Journalor listen to FNN or call your broker or the trading floor? Because you think THEY know more about the market than you do; after all, "They are in the business."

Most likely, they don't!
I do not know any broker who would be a broker if he or she could trade profitably. The designation of broker probably means that you are the brokee. Of the newsletter writers and market commentators you know, how many have made money in the markets? I have never met an economics professor who made a significant amount of money trading.

Aristotle believed in a reductionist approach: if you break anything down into its smallest primary parts, you can understand how that mechanism works. Thus began our search for the smallest part of the universe, which was thought to be the atom. However, with more sophisticated tools, we developed an entirely new science based on subatomic particles, and this subatomic research has totally changed our basic ideas about the universe. It is also interesting to note that all the subatomic particles that have been discovered were named long before they were discovered.

The old questions return: Do we believe what we see? Or, do we see what we believe? Aristotelian philosophy has influenced our legal system (precedence), our educational system (the teacher-student relationship: the student is dumb and the teacher is smart), medicine (double-blind studies), and science (reliability and validity). Following this path of reductionism has produced the concepts of cause and effect, "laws" of motion, "conservation" of energy, and entropy. The latest findings of modern science have proven all of these assumptions and concepts false. Aristotle's philosophical counterpart, Heraclitus, felt that the universe was in constant flux, and stability and homeostasis were not the norm.

Probably his most famous saying was: "You can't step in the same river twice," meaning that when you put your foot in and take it out and immediately place it back into the water, not only has the river changed, your foot has changed also. Heraclitus's most famous student, Clayitus, went even further. He said: "You can't step in the same river once": you and the river are changing during the process of putting your foot in. Science in the twentieth century will be remembered for three very basic innovations that completely changed our way of viewing the world:

1. Relativity.

2. Quantum mechanics.

3. The Science of Chaos, which includes information theory, cybernetics, holography,nonlinear dynamics, and fractal geometry.

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